Thanks to finnegan on MOL for bringing this to my attention.
Several Models are showing the potential for a coastal storm to impact NJ mid-week next week. Some have it skimming by, one or two ouliers have snow in NYC and suburbs.
First things FIVE DAYS OUT IS WHEN PATTERNS BECOME MORE SOLIDIFIED, BUT PATHS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. Given what NJ just went through with Sandy, where land fall forecasts changed several times in the five days leading up to it, I think this point is better understood than perhaps it might have been before.
Here are the semi-techie discussions on the *current* models and analysis that I read:
This discussion on the Accuweather forums
And NYNJPAWeather’s tweets (link on right)
What I got out of it:
- It’s pretty certain there will be a storm coming up the coast. I don’t think any models, except extreme outliers, show it going out to sea.
- AGAIN, as the path is still uncertain, exactly how much (note that’s not if , but ‘how much’) rain NJ will see is up in the air.
- There looks to be arctic air hanging out over the Appalachians at the same time. Depending on the path of the storm and exactly where it interacts withe the arctic air, there will be snow. NOT along the shore, water temps are too warm to support it, but in the interior. Now, still unclear if that’s interior New England, NY and/or NJ.
Right now, it’s a wait and see. Watch what the models are suggesting, listen to people who can knowledgeably interpret them, and use past experiences to then interpret that data.
**Note that this blog is typically inactive, however with Sandy affecting so many of my friends in NNJ, I am reviving it until my buddy Max gets power back and can get back onto MOL to keep people informed of impending severe weather.