New Favorite NNJ Weather site

I love the updates the NWS Eastern Region HQ puts up on their facebook page.(and no, you don’t have to be on facebook to see them, just click ‘close’ on the window that pops up asking you to sign in or join). They don’t do it frequently but when they do put up graphics they’re chock full of information.

NWS Upton/New York is also picking up their Facebook presence and posted this interesting link to a map with interactive snowfall totals. Now, before you freak out that your area got more (or less) two things to consider: the time the amount was recorded (click on the snow fall total to see when the report was from) and elevation, being even slightly higher up make a different in accumulations with the storm.

Hmm, thinking *this* might be a good mesh for them to get information out to more people. Wonder if they’re doing it in my area….

Monday Update on NNJ Mid-Week Storm (11/7 & 8)

As with any time you have two systems affecting each other, the timing and location of each is what determines the outcome. The models seem to have all settled down on a path for the ‘storm’ element with some precipitation for NNJ. What isn’t clear is how much and if any of that will be snow due to the interaction with the cold ridge.

Yep, snow.

Here is a map of water vapor and winds which I marked up to show what I mean.

The orange squiggly line shows the locations where the two *could* interact. Depending on how far east the cold ridge (or trough) is and how far south it extends when the two meet up, there may or may not be snow in NNJ down to the Philadelphia area. Look like the trough may well ‘race’ east. Still a wait and see, we’re getting within 48 hours so some of the shorter term models which are geared to look at rapidly developing situations will start to come into play this afternoon. It will be interesting to see what the call is then.

Friday Morning Update for 11/6-7 NNJ Storm

Most models are bringing the rain up over the coast, exact path (which’ll tell us ‘how much’) not clear but the probability of rain on 11/6-7 is getting much higher. How much, again, need to wait until the potential path is clearer. As Max points out frequently that’s typically not until ~48 hours before the storm there’ll be any certainty.

Right now, if you can, and you have damage, I’d make a run for tarps because it is looking very probable for rain, it’s just not clear how much. (sorry, realize I say that a lot, but I’m guessing that’s going to be the biggest question here).

Unless the cold trough over the Applachians takes a sudden dive east, snow within ~30 miles of the NJ coast seems very unlikely (although there may be flurries). Something else to watch.

Just a reminder, I cover NNJ (Northern New Jersey) only when there’s truly severe weather and power is out in the Maplewood, NJ area (making it so my buddy Max can’t post).

November 6/7 Storm for NJ

Thanks to finnegan on MOL for bringing this to my attention.

Several Models are showing the potential for a coastal storm to impact NJ mid-week next week. Some have it skimming by, one or two ouliers have snow in NYC and suburbs.

First things FIVE DAYS OUT IS WHEN PATTERNS BECOME MORE SOLIDIFIED, BUT PATHS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN. Given what NJ just went through with Sandy, where land fall forecasts changed several times in the five days leading up to it, I think this point is better understood than perhaps it might have been before.

Here are the semi-techie discussions on the *current* models and analysis that I read:

Mid-Week Storm Analysis by Mike Defino

This discussion on the Accuweather forums

And NYNJPAWeather’s tweets (link on right)

What I got out of it:

• It’s pretty certain there will be a storm coming up the coast. I don’t think any models, except extreme outliers, show it going out to sea.
• AGAIN, as the path is still uncertain, exactly how much (note that’s not if , but ‘how much’) rain NJ will see is up in the air.
• There looks to be arctic air hanging out over the Appalachians at the same time. Depending on the path of the storm and exactly where it interacts withe the arctic air, there will be snow. NOT along the shore, water temps are too warm to support it, but in the interior. Now, still unclear if that’s interior New England, NY and/or NJ.

Right now, it’s a wait and see. Watch what the models are suggesting, listen to people who can knowledgeably interpret them, and use past experiences to then interpret that data.

**Note that this blog is typically inactive, however with Sandy affecting so many of my friends in NNJ, I am reviving it until my buddy Max gets power back and can get back onto MOL to keep people informed of impending severe weather.

Sandy hitting my old stomping grounds in NJ

The hurricane hybrid Sandy’s exact path is uncertain. What is not is that NNJ will be affected in a major way by this storm.

Here are the two images I keep checking on the HPC (Hurricane Prediction Center) site showing HOW MUCH RAIN AND WHERE and WHERE THE WINDS ARE GOING TO BE. Because, let’s face it. those are the two things you need to be looking at, not where the eye of the storm will land.

So here they are:

TOTAL 5 day rainfall (total amount expected to fall over 5 days):

 

And the Tropical Storm Force Wind Speed Probabilities, scale of ‘chance’ at bottom:

 

Potentially dangerous Spring Storm heading to SW Ohio

High potential for hail starting mid-afternoon through evening as well as 
possible tornado watch potential for the late evening hours.

Here's the map from the storm prediction center:

And here's the text for mesoscale discussion 208:
1030 AM CST FRI MAR 02 2012

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN IND...NERN KY...MUCH OF OH AND
   ADJACENT WEST VIRGINIA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 021630Z - 021800Z

   A WATCH IS NOT NECESSARILY ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR TERM...BUT ONE
   PROBABLY WILL BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   THE SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS SPREADING
   NORTHEASTWARD WITHIN AN ELEVATED WARM ADVECTION REGIME...IN ADVANCE
   OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD THROUGH THE OHIO
   VALLEY...MAY BE LIMITED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   WATCH ISSUANCE.  HOWEVER...THE RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AS THE WARM SECTOR OF A DEEP SURFACE
   CYCLONE...MIGRATING NORTHEAST OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO
   THE GREAT LAKES REGION...ADVECTS NORTHEAST OF THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
    AT THE PRESENT TIME...IT APPEARS THAT A TORNADO WATCH COULD BECOME
   NECESSARY CLOSER TO THE 21-22Z TIME FRAME.

Open letter to my NWS webmaster (Cincinnati)

Hello, Perhaps you can address this problem. When I go to my local weather page: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php… And I scroll down to the images from the ‘national digital database’ I can’t help but notice those images DO NOT HAVE CINCINNATI on them. Indeed, when I click on the image I get: http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/eas… The graphics for the eastern great lakes, which while the show the very edge of the northern Cincinnati suburbs, they DO NOT HAVE CINCINNATI on them. When I pan down using the scroll arrows I get this: http://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/cen… The digital database for the central great lakes which DOES have Cincinnati on it. Barely, but it’s there in its entirety. So, my question is: WHY is the graphical forecast FOR THE NWS PAGE FOR CINCINNATI linked to an image which *does not show Cincinnati*??? Heck, these same links are on the page for Covington, KY and that is NOWHERE close to being in the graphic images for the Eastern Great Lakes. Actually, I’m not really concerned with the “why”, I’d simply like to ask, in order for you to provide accurate and informative information, you please link Cincinnati to the digital images which… show Cincinnati. SERIOUSLY, it really doesn’t seem like too much to ask. Thank you so much,

And…whoomp, there it is: snow, snow, snow

There hasn’t been a single prediction model which doesn’t have Chicago getting hit by snow, while here in Cincinnati the range has been from .5 inches to 2. The map below has us in the one inch range.

The mid-day run of the GFS, paints a better picture of the likely snow pattern. This image shows 48 hour accumulated snow from now until late morning Friday.

 

If this holds true, you can see the northern half of I65 is going to be a mess Friday morning, and likely into the afternoon (sorry, but Indy has a terrible reputation for poorly plowed highways). This is just through late morning, however it seems most models do have the brunt of the system tapering off mid-afternoon Friday at this point.

Still waiting and watching, and seeing if this will affect my personal plan to head into Chicago.

 

Yep, snow for NE Indiana and Northern Illinois

Here is the NWS prediction map showing the probability for AT LEAST two inches of snow over the next 48 hours.

Snow — not much here, but Illinois and Indiana look to take a hit

Hmm, looks like there’s a low spinning out over the eastern edge of Texas, pulling up moisture from the gulf:

This low looks like it’ll move at pretty much a 45 degree angle over the next couple of days, bringing moisture to Illinois and Indiana.

With an arctic high looking to move into the over the western great lakes, these areas as well as the eastern side of the great lakes can expect snow. East and south of Pennsylvania looks to remain mostly rain.

Cincinnati? Maybe an inch or two or snow, the rest will be rain, unless that arctic high dips down faster and lower than expected.

Curious what tonights model runs say.